The US tariffs have hit long-time allies and close trading partners, including the European Union, Japan and South Korea, but according to Reuters, countries such as Brazil, India or Kenya could benefit from the process, despite the possible consequences of the recession.
Brazil is one of the countries with the lowest “reciprocal” tariff from the US. remaining at 10%. But in addition, China’s retaliatory tariffs are likely to benefit other US agricultural exporters.
Countries with trade deficits with the US can take advantage of the circumstances, while those with large surpluses have been hit hard by Trump. On one side, Bangladesh and Vietnam, on the other Morocco, Egypt, Türkiye and Singapore. The former face tariffs of 37% and 46%, the others, like Brazil, are in the 10% club.
“The US didn’t just impose tariffs on Egypt,” said Magdy Tolba, chairman of the Egyptian-Turkish joint venture T&C Garments. “He has imposed much higher tariffs on other countries. This gives Egypt a great opportunity to grow.” Tolba pointed to China, Bangladesh and Vietnam as Egypt’s main competitors in textiles. “The opportunity is there,” he said. “We just need to grab it.”
Turkey, whose iron, steel and aluminum exports were hit by previous U.S. tariffs, now stands to benefit, but through even higher duties imposed on its competitors. Hence Trade Minister Omer Bolat called the tariffs on Turkey “the best of the worst.”
Morocco, which has a free trade agreement with the US, is another potential relative beneficiary of the pain from the EU and former Asian powers. “The tariff is an opportunity for Morocco to attract investment from foreign investors willing to export to the US, given the comparatively low tariff of 10%,” said a former government official, who asked not to be identified.
Rachid Aourraz, an economist at the Moroccan Institute for Political Analysis (MIPA), an independent think tank in Rabat, noted that the country’s aerospace and fertilizer industries could still take a hit. “While the direct impact appears limited, given that the US is not a major market for Morocco’s exports, the shockwaves created by the tariffs and the specter of recession could impact Moroccan economic growth,” he said.
Kenya and its textile producers join this group of likely beneficiaries in the scenario of countries least affected by tariffs versus countries most affected by tariffs. However, the African continent is about to reveal the results of recent Chinese mega-investments, such as the US$6.5 billion Gotion High Tech, Africa’s first gigafactory, in Kenitra, north of the Moroccan capital. The unpredictability of Trump’s measures could lead to new retaliatory measures.
In the city-state of Singapore, OCBC economist Selena Ling says, “The stark story is that there are no ‘winners’ if the U.S. and/or global economy hits a screeching halt or recession.” “It’s all relative.” Maybank economist Chua Hak Bin added: “Singapore cannot win in the global trade war given its heavy dependence on trade.”
India, struggling with a 26% tariff, could benefit from the “best of the worst” logic among its Asian rivals. According to an internal government assessment shared with Reuters, India could gain an edge in the textile, apparel and footwear sectors. India’s commerce ministry said shortly after the tariffs were publicly announced that it would be “studying the opportunities that may arise due to this new development in US trade policy.”
India could still get some good news from Apple if it confirms that it is shifting iPhone production from China due to the tariff differential. Still, the 26% tariff would make the price of the smartphone substantially more expensive.
In Latin America’s commodities market, which encompasses products ranging from copper to grains, the Trump administration’s tariffs have revived the trade agreement between Mercosur and the European Union. Brazil could be the main beneficiary, especially considering Trump’s first term and the exponential sales of Brazilian soybean and corn producers after China blocked US farmers.
According to Graham Stock, senior emerging markets strategist at RBC BlueBay, Mexico has not felt Trump’s measures since most of its trade is protected by the USMCA trade agreement negotiated during Trump’s first term. However, says Stock, “Mexican assets are struggling more than others because Mexico is so exposed to the US economy and ultimately Trump’s trade policy is a massive act of self-harm for the US economy.”
