Everything leads to believe that the United States will suffer losses of US$29 billion in the tourism sector. Better yet, they won’t lose, but they won’t be able to profit.
This is all due to the policies of the Trump administration, mainly based on tariffs and restrictions and increased visa costs. According to Forbes, a study by the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) shows that the US is the only country with negative forecasts.
After the pandemic, the population resumed their traveling habits and, even with the price increases from airlines, they seem to want to make up for lost time.
The estimated loss figures are based on a set of calculations, from the revision of the projected growth, which was 9%, to a loss of 8.2%, representing a variation of 17.2%. In dollars, we can talk about a change from a profit of US$16.3 billion to a deficit of US$25 billion to US$29 billion.
Considering that Canada was responsible for 25% of US visitors in 2024, where they spent over US$20 billion, and that Canadian tourist have lost the desire to visit the United States for shorter or longer periods, but have not their appetite for travel did not diminish, we can conclude that we will see changes in habits and destinations.
Snowbirds is the term used to define those who have not learned to (or exercise their right not to) tolerate or even enjoy the Canadian winter. Snowbirds cannot stand cold or snow; they include a segment of older and retired population. When Canada freezes, the snowbirds head, for example, to the southern US.
However, states like Florida will feel some adjustments. According to the Realtor portal, Canada was responsible for 13% of foreign investment in real estate, something around US$5.6 billion. And Florida welcomed 41% of these buyers from the Maple Leaf Country.
Trump’s tariffs not only impacted the prices of imported goods, but also created friction between the two countries, which, let’s face it, is not inviting. Furthermore, visa applications and renewals now cost an additional US$250 fee, plus increased insurance costs due to the natural phenomena that plagued the region.
Therefore, considering only Canada and Canadian snowbirds, the US loses tourists and seasonal residents. Fewer trips, properties not bought or rented, goods not consumed, hotels, hostels and inns without occupied beds, bars and restaurants without their usual patrons…
But it’s good to remember that Canadians haven’t stopped traveling or wanting warmer places. They will continue flying, spending, consuming, buying, and sightseeing.
Southern Europe has already realized that the route of many snowbirds may change. Although they already know southern Portugal, southern Spain, or Greece, the number of tourists who may swap the southern US for the Mediterranean coast will probably increase. But many may continue to choose to remain on the same continent, going to more usual places like Mexico or the Dominican Republic.
Countries like Argentina, Brazil, or Colombia have a golden opportunity to become the hot destination for these heat-loving tourists, provided they know how to create strategies to welcome this type of tourist or seasonal resident.
